Our Real Market Expectations For This Year

 


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The Jelly Bean Chart

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Forecasting Interest Rates: Mission (Im)possible?

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Forecasting interest rates is an important exercise for any portfolio manager or investment strategist. The future direction of interest rates dictates the future prices of bonds and the equilibrium of cash flows between the two major asset classes - bonds and stocks. Central banks around the world gather periodically to assess their respective inflationary pressures and employment statistics. Reading the interest rate tea leaves seems difficult - at best! Bond Market Structure There are two main levers to consider when we think about the bond market - credit risk and duration risk. Credit risk is the estimate of how likely we (as investors) will get our interest payments on time and the probability of recovering our principle at the end of the bond term. Credit risks can range from very low (AAA rated) to very high (DDD rated). Duration risk is the estimate of how much a bond price will change between its birth date and its termination date. Shorter duration bonds will have lower risk...
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Inflation: Cause For Worry?

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  What Is The CPI? The consumer price index (CPI) is a price metric for a market basket of goods and services purchased by US households at a specific point in time. Changes to the CPI are widely used in the US and other countries as measures of price inflation. Along with population growth over time, the trends in CPI are closely watched by national governments throughout the world as critical inputs for economic policy. Positive price inflation decreases our purchasing power for a market basket of goods and services over time while negative price inflation increases that purchasing power. One of the primary charges for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is to promote price stability. Although a constant measure of CPI ensures price stability, that is rarely optimal for a properly functioning economy and financial marketplace. When prices are dropping (or expected to drop) for goods and services, consumers have an incentive to wait for a lower price in the future. On the fli...
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