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Showing posts from March 6, 2024

Back To The Future?

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Source : Shiller Data, JQR Capital The Market Portfolio Last week we compared the venerable 60/40 stock/bond portfolio to the historical performance of a calculated market portfolio (MP) over the past 40 years. This was our first comparison between a strategic asset allocation approach (60/40) compared to a tactical asset allocation (MP) approach. It turns out that our suspicion proved correct that the tactical approach provided a slight higher risk-adjusted return over the 1983 to 2022 period. The respective Sharpe ratios (0.548 versus 0.564) indicates a slightly smoother “ride” using the tactical approach.  Source : FRED Data, JQR Capital Back To The Future  We now start looking further back than 1982 by including data from Yale University Professor Robert J. Shiller. His data goes all the way back to 1871 and it is the basis of his famed cyclically adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio. The reason for our literal backtrack is that sometimes we need to go backwards before we go for