Market Forecasting Is Folly Last month we added a cash position to our efficient frontier. The effect was to lower our expected risk and expand the range of expected outcomes for our available set of portfolios. One of the key words we have been using is this idea of “expected” outcomes. There is an intentionally non-specific meaning to this word because it lies in the gray area between wild guess and ironclad guarantee. The market forecasters of the world make big headlines around this time of year similar to how meteorologists make predictions about the snowfall before winter in the northern US. The big question is: are these forecasts remotely accurate? The quick answer is: kinda, sorta, not really. Source : https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/ What About The Data  There are numerous investing roundtables and guru retreats that lure us into the fire of predicting the future. Those of you who have seen me at events around this time of year know that I have a few canned market forecasti